Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be 40 or more?
This contract is priced at 13¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 15¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
7
Family volume
$32K
Best sibling
<20 2¢
Ticker
0x2b44c7d1…b5a3
Market snapshot
40+ in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be 40 or more?. The displayed quote is 13¢ from the latest venue quote. In the How many Democratic House members not running in 2026? family, this outcome ranks #5 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
40+
Family rank
#5 of 7
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
13¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Aug 31, 2026
Reported volume
—
Family context
7 outcomes · How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
Quote range
2¢-27¢
Family leader
24–27 27¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 7m ago
Venue identifier: 0x2b44c7d1b68f099a34610b45f560cff2454a926db705d1755f486bb0f78db5a3. Family volume: $32K.
Price history
13¢ current
+5¢Orderbook snapshot
5 / 20¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
Identifier
0x2b44c7d1…b5a3
Event family
How many Democratic House members not running in 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$32K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
24–27 27¢
Current share
0%
40+
polymarket · 0x2b44c7d1b68f099a34610b45f560cff2454a926db705d1755f486bb0f78db5a3
<20
polymarket · 0x45c8cc04e83663319bca62cb39b4b45ec0afdc8400f9412097ac375f660cc43e
20–23
polymarket · 0x4d79d3068bdc6bbb2101462561d64c54773947d9c776d1ad637655c60ecbe5b9
24–27
polymarket · 0xb24ae6117a3b68c79c085aa102a5054073dbd5c131db1774f1e41230ad7d67bf
32–35
polymarket · 0x17087f5dc3bbb1d35b3582b3354a27348faaeb4c20fdc73b09112bedf47988ed
28–31
polymarket · 0x8b02a7cf1b24a5aa69c9eb526a22cd4518cd6906d2cb06d0c6127d80aabff988
36–39
polymarket · 0x3bd41128192b018ad23b6b7968d1365e05bb1dcedfc5d3df84545cee19448b7c
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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