Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?
This contract is priced at 18¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 15¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 6¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
7
Family volume
$32K
Best sibling
<20 2¢
Ticker
0x8b02a7cf…f988
Market snapshot
28–31 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?. The displayed quote is 18¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $1K. In the How many Democratic House members not running in 2026? family, this outcome ranks #3 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC.
Outcome
28–31
Family rank
#3 of 7
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
18¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Aug 31, 2026
Reported volume
$1K
Family context
7 outcomes · How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
Quote range
2¢-27¢
Family leader
24–27 27¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC · 1m ago
Venue identifier: 0x8b02a7cf1b24a5aa69c9eb526a22cd4518cd6906d2cb06d0c6127d80aabff988. Family volume: $32K.
Price history
18¢ current
−3¢Orderbook snapshot
15 / 21¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
Identifier
0x8b02a7cf…f988
Event family
How many Democratic House members not running in 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$32K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
24–27 27¢
Current share
4%
28–31
polymarket · 0x8b02a7cf1b24a5aa69c9eb526a22cd4518cd6906d2cb06d0c6127d80aabff988
<20
polymarket · 0x45c8cc04e83663319bca62cb39b4b45ec0afdc8400f9412097ac375f660cc43e
20–23
polymarket · 0x4d79d3068bdc6bbb2101462561d64c54773947d9c776d1ad637655c60ecbe5b9
24–27
polymarket · 0xb24ae6117a3b68c79c085aa102a5054073dbd5c131db1774f1e41230ad7d67bf
32–35
polymarket · 0x17087f5dc3bbb1d35b3582b3354a27348faaeb4c20fdc73b09112bedf47988ed
36–39
polymarket · 0x3bd41128192b018ad23b6b7968d1365e05bb1dcedfc5d3df84545cee19448b7c
40+
polymarket · 0x2b44c7d1b68f099a34610b45f560cff2454a926db705d1755f486bb0f78db5a3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 18% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.