Above 16 · How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1
Above 16 is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 8 inside How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1.
Price history
2¢ current
Contract brief
If SpaceX has more than 16 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 16
Rank
#7 of 8
Leader
Above 10 95¢
Range
1¢-95¢
Family volume
$18K
Identifier
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-16
Jun 7, 2026, 9:25 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$743
Family rank
#7 of 8
8 outcomes · How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$18K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If SpaceX has more than 16 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-16
Event family
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$18K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above 10 95¢
Current share
4%
Above 10
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-10
Above 11
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-11
Above 12
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-12
Above 13
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-13
Above 14
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-14
Above 15
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-15
Above 16
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-16
Above 18
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-18
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.