India’s 2026 Annual Inflation at least 4.50%
4.50%+ is priced at 86¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 78¢ bid, 92¢ ask, 14¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside India Annual Inflation 2026.
Price history
86¢ current
+18¢Contract brief
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Outcome
4.50%+
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
4.50%+ 85¢
Range
0¢-85¢
Family volume
$61K
Identifier
0x4c3eb9cc...932b
Jun 7, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
78¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
14¢
24h volume
$70
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · India Annual Inflation 2026
Closes
Jan 12, 2027
Family volume
$61K
Orderbook snapshot
78 / 92¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 12, 2027
Identifier
0x4c3eb9cc…932b
Event family
India Annual Inflation 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$61K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
4.50%+ 85¢
Current share
19%
4.50%+
polymarket · 0x4c3eb9cc59964dbf8afc1b778c3178c5af15c5dd4686b1ea8da979a52d0a932b
3.75% to 4.49%
polymarket · 0x99f9b93f2a1722242f785513441a6b53329b974016cee38cc18ab7a6d9580734
<0.75%
polymarket · 0x2cbd2902e437ad21646706800b0322b2ca321d3ce23ef833255aeb654f78aa19
1.50% to 2.24%
polymarket · 0x5c4b3811fd26a0352c710dfd45f0855c44eac0f48490d61d1f0e47c8845a7e01
2.25% to 2.99%
polymarket · 0x8aee74b7b847e182a4e80090d76c278ada71bfd9144d8cc0868c51a339524738
0.75% to 1.49%
polymarket · 0xa54df16a869289122b0fea45dc4cbe1df713f5b118fb567e559f311539363883
3.00% to 3.74%
polymarket · 0xebf35775288568c083fd517aceb4d6906f9fb7c63f42a924a1eff1013ffa0188
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.