December 31 · Iran leadership change by
December 31 is priced at 28¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 28¢ bid, 29¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Iran leadership change by...?.
Price history
28¢ current
−7¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
December 31
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
December 31 28¢
Range
5¢-28¢
Family volume
$4.5M
Identifier
0x377e7fe6...5607
Jun 3, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
28¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$18K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Iran leadership change by...?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$4.5M
Orderbook snapshot
28 / 29¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x377e7fe6…5607
Event family
Iran leadership change by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4.5M
Outcomes
2
Highest price
December 31 28¢
Current share
60%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.