Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 8 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
15%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$252K
8 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
209 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Iran leadership change by” vs “Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Iran leadership change by
Cluster 2
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by
Cluster 3
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?: June 30
0x689773…f73e
Cluster 4
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?: December 31
0x58998d…3d6f
Cluster 5
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?: December 31
0x328517…58f4
Cluster 6
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?: December 31
0x2f224f…519d
Analysis
This 18% probability reflects market expectations that the Iran-Israel-US conflict will be resolved by end-2026, with most resolution mechanisms concentrated in June. The relatively low percentage suggests markets view continued tension as more likely than diplomatic breakthrough or military conclusion within this timeframe. The probability is driven by two competing dynamics: near-term catalysts like potential leadership changes or uranium negotiations (reflected in the high-volume June contracts at 5-17%) versus the difficulty of achieving substantive de-escalation given current geopolitical positions. The June 30 deadline creates a natural pivot point—expiration of these near-term contracts will reveal whether any major developments occurred or whether the conflict trajectory extends beyond 2026.
- ›Three separate June 30 contracts (Kharg Island control, Iranian leadership change, uranium surrender) trade at 5-17%, suggesting June is viewed as a critical decision point with only modest probability of resolution
- ›December contracts trade higher (uranium at 21%, leadership change at 28%), indicating markets assign greater likelihood to resolution over longer timeframes but still below 50%
- ›The disparity between June and December contracts suggests markets expect either continuation of current tensions through mid-year or slow-moving negotiations rather than rapid escalation or breakthrough
- ›High trading volume ($67-147K daily across top contracts) indicates genuine uncertainty rather than consensus, with significant capital backing multiple resolution scenarios
- ›Uranium enrichment remains a central negotiation point, with December uranium surrender at 21% versus June at 17%, potentially reflecting extended diplomacy assumptions
What moved the line
- Jun 1June 30↓8pp19→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 29June 30↓3pp25→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 30June 30↓3pp22→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 30December 31↓3pp49→46¢ · Polymarket
- May 31December 31↓3pp46→43¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10last 96% · 1d
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 1d
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Maylast 3% · 1d
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 2d
- What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31last 4% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Slide as Tensions Persist
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 4¢ to 24¢, while the chance of Iran closing its airspace rose. Traders should monitor Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization contracts for oil price implications.
Iran Peace Deal Optimism Fades: June 7 Contract Drops 5¢
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 7 has dropped 5¢ to just 7¢, while the June 30 deadline sits at 25¢. Traders are losing confidence in a near-term breakthrough, which supports oil prices and geopolitical risk premiums.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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