Iran leadership change by...
Leader sits at 31% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
June 30
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$375K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Iran leadership change by
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood of Iran experiencing a leadership change by a specified date. The 15% level reflects current market expectations that such a transition is possible but not imminent. Recent contract pricing suggests markets are pricing in elevated geopolitical risk between the US and Iran, with related uncertainties about uranium enrichment, territorial control, and diplomatic resolution. The main drivers are ongoing nuclear negotiations, regional military tensions, and the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations. Key upcoming events include reported timelines for peace deal discussions (May 15 and May 31) and statements on uranium enrichment progress, which would provide concrete signals about whether internal Iranian political pressure might intensify or reduce.
- ›Related contracts show 38¢ pricing for June 30 peace deal prospects versus 5¢ for May 15, indicating market skepticism about near-term resolution
- ›Uranium enrichment and Kharg Island control contracts trading at single-digit to low double-digit cents suggest low immediate probability of major escalation
- ›Peace deal contract volumes exceed $289K daily, indicating active price discovery on US-Iran diplomatic outcomes that would directly affect leadership stability
- ›The 15% baseline sits between lowest crisis scenarios (5¢ for May 15 peace) and moderate escalation scenarios (38¢ for June 30 peace), suggesting conditional probability on escalation trajectory
- ›Absence of high-probability near-term leadership change contracts indicates markets do not expect imminent internal Iranian regime collapse from current conditions
What moved the line
- Jun 7June 30↑3pp4→7¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 2d
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 5d
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10last 96% · 5d
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Maylast 3% · 5d
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (31% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
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Multiple Polymarket contracts for Iran closing its airspace surged to 100¢, reflecting a market consensus that a military confrontation is imminent. This has broad implications for oil prices, global risk appetite, and regional stability.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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