At least 54 · ISM Manufacturing PMI in May 2026?: At least
At least 54 is priced at 52¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 21¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 8 inside ISM Manufacturing PMI in May 2026?: At least.
Price history
52¢ current
+41¢Contract brief
If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for May 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 54 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 54
Rank
#6 of 8
Leader
At least 49 90¢
Range
6¢-90¢
Family volume
$100
Identifier
KXISMPMI-26MAY-54
May 27, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
21¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#6 of 8
8 outcomes · ISM Manufacturing PMI in May 2026?: At least
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Family volume
$100
Orderbook snapshot
21 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for May 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 54 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Identifier
KXISMPMI-26MAY-54
Event family
ISM Manufacturing PMI in May 2026?: At least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$100
Outcomes
8
Highest price
At least 49 90¢
Current share
0%
At least 49
kalshi · KXISMPMI-26MAY-49
At least 50
kalshi · KXISMPMI-26MAY-50
At least 51
kalshi · KXISMPMI-26MAY-51
At least 52
kalshi · KXISMPMI-26MAY-52
At least 53
kalshi · KXISMPMI-26MAY-53
At least 54
kalshi · KXISMPMI-26MAY-54
At least 55
kalshi · KXISMPMI-26MAY-55
At least 56
kalshi · KXISMPMI-26MAY-56
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.