ISM Manufacturing PMI in Apr 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$36K
17 contracts
Top contract
7¢
$10K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 5” vs “Will there be more than”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 5
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 53.5?: Above 53.5
KXUSISMSERV-26MAY05-T53.5
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 54.0?: Above 54.0
KXUSISMSERV-26MAY05-T54.0
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 55.5?: Above 55.5
KXUSISMSERV-26MAY05-T55.5
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 51.0?: Above 51.0
KXUSISMSERV-26MAY05-T51.0
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 51.5?: Above 51.5
KXUSISMSERV-26MAY05-T51.5
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 53.0?: Above 53.0
KXUSISMSERV-26MAY05-T53.0
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 54.5?: Above 54.5
KXUSISMSERV-26MAY05-T54.5
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 55.0?: Above 55.0
KXUSISMSERV-26MAY05-T55.0
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 52.0?: Above 52.0
KXUSISMSERV-26MAY05-T52.0
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 52.5?: Above 52.5
KXUSISMSERV-26MAY05-T52.5
Will US ISM services PMI for April 2026 be above 50.5?: Above 50.5
KXUSISMSERV-26MAY05-T50.5
Cluster 2
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 27, 2026 to May 3, 2026?: Above 60
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY03-T60
Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 27, 2026 to May 3, 2026?: Above 50
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY03-T50
Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 27, 2026 to May 3, 2026?: Above 40
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY03-T40
Cluster 3
CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026
CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026?: Exactly 3.8%
KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26APR-T3.8
Cluster 4
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in April 2026
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.6%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.6
Cluster 5
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in April 2026
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in April 2026?: Above 0.5%
KXCPI-26APR-T0.5
What moved the line
- May 1Above 50.5↓85pp89→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Above 51.0↓74pp86→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Above 51.5↓71pp83→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Above 52.0↓70pp80→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Above 52.5↓53pp64→11¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.