June 30 · Labour leadership election scheduled by
June 30 is priced at 64¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 58¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?.
Price history
64¢ current
+23¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Outcome
June 30
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
June 30 63¢
Range
2¢-63¢
Family volume
$30K
Identifier
0x6bc2c22c...05b2
May 27, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
58¢
Ask
67¢
Spread
9¢
24h volume
$5
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$30K
Orderbook snapshot
58 / 67¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x6bc2c22c…05b2
Event family
Labour leadership election scheduled by .
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$30K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
June 30 63¢
Current share
74%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.477
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Reflexivity Loops in Election Markets: When Price → Consensus → Price
Election prediction markets have a feedback loop where price becomes news becomes price. How the loop works, the 2024 case study, and how to size trades against it.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 64% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.