June 30 · Labour leadership election scheduled by
June 30 is priced at 67¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 63¢ bid, 70¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?.
Price history
67¢ current
+33¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Outcome
June 30
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
June 30 67¢
Range
2¢-67¢
Family volume
$30K
Identifier
0x6bc2c22c...05b2
May 28, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
63¢
Ask
70¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$22K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$30K
Orderbook snapshot
63 / 70¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x6bc2c22c…05b2
Event family
Labour leadership election scheduled by .
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$30K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
June 30 67¢
Current share
74%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.477
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.