LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner

Yield Curve (Prediction Markets)

A prediction-market yield curve plots implied yield against τ-days across all sibling contracts in an event family. Borrowed from bond desks, enabled by cycle clustering.

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

The Longshot Bias in Modern Prediction Markets — 80 Years of Evidence in One Number

Horse racing has an 80-year longshot bias. Polymarket and Kalshi have one too — but the direction is opposite. What the calibration data on cheap and expensive contracts actually says.