At least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026
2000 is priced at 36¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 34¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?.
Price history
36¢ current
+24¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Outcome
2000
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
2000 34¢
Range
1¢-34¢
Family volume
$33K
Identifier
0x0d2c9b8b...8e2e
May 27, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
34¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$920
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$33K
Orderbook snapshot
34 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x0d2c9b8b…8e2e
Event family
Measles cases in U.S. by May 31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$33K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
2000 34¢
Current share
72%
2000
polymarket · 0x0d2c9b8bbc81ef294b72a82db21b85dafaab1dbf9f7c1e3aebe531ad7bfc8e2e
2200
polymarket · 0x4099154492fe263d61daf66377d25f9a260aa70d00b7aae48d2b2a4463baa29c
2400
polymarket · 0xf810fcc5fef5ecce25c9b73a7bff33c3344f211446d50871f2a97eec53106104
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.