At least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026
2000 is priced at 38¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 36¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?.
Price history
38¢ current
+26¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Outcome
2000
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
2000 38¢
Range
3¢-38¢
Family volume
$49K
Identifier
0x0d2c9b8b...8e2e
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
36¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$8K
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$49K
Orderbook snapshot
36 / 40¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x0d2c9b8b…8e2e
Event family
Measles cases in U.S. by May 31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$49K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
2000 38¢
Current share
71%
2000
polymarket · 0x0d2c9b8bbc81ef294b72a82db21b85dafaab1dbf9f7c1e3aebe531ad7bfc8e2e
2200
polymarket · 0x4099154492fe263d61daf66377d25f9a260aa70d00b7aae48d2b2a4463baa29c
2400
polymarket · 0xf810fcc5fef5ecce25c9b73a7bff33c3344f211446d50871f2a97eec53106104
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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