SimpleFunctions
PolymarketJun 30, 202652 days left

Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?

This contract is priced at 26¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 25¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 2¢ spread.

Implied probability

26¢
$6K volume
$2K liquidity
100% of event volume

Event outcomes

1

Family volume

$6K

Best sibling

Ticker

0xe2b3aca2…17b4

Market snapshot

June 30 in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?. The displayed quote is 26¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $1. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC.

Outcome

June 30

Family rank

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

26¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jun 30, 2026

24h volume

$1

Family context

Standalone contract

Quote range

Family leader

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC · 11m ago

Venue identifier: 0xe2b3aca20d136af79f908b7c9cba9832b338e2c02083aa114444f273621b17b4. Family volume: $6K.

Price history

26¢ current

47¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 9, 2026May 6, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

25 / 27¢

Polymarket
2¢ spread
BidSize
25¢37
24¢585
23¢139
22¢55
21¢33
20¢50
14¢136
13¢69
AskSize
27¢195
28¢658
58¢45
59¢218
64¢25
68¢431
76¢100
77¢429

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation. A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify. Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public. A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0xe2b3aca2…17b4

Event family

Meta "Mango" model released by.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$6K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

June 30 26¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

2009.7%
248.1%
Adj IY
1005%
3

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Blogtech

MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket

Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Bloginsights

When the Orderbook Is Empty, You Have Information

An empty orderbook is not missing data. It is one of two specific stories — and the second story is the most reliable maker setup I have found on Polymarket.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index