6 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 min agoCloses Jun 30, 2026 · 52d

DeepSeek V4 released by...

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 6 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

18%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

—

not bound

Polymarket

18%

6 contracts

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$17K

6 contracts

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

52 days

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Aggregate of 6 contracts · 28d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 6 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Gemini 3.5 released by” vs “Epstein client list released by”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Gemini 3.5 released by

2 contracts$11K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Gemini 3.5 released by...?: May 31

0x009cb7…ab42

10¢+1pp$9KP→

Gemini 3.5 released by...?: June 30

0x437080…d519

44¢−1pp$2KP→

Cluster 2

Epstein client list released by

1 contract$4K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Epstein client list released by...?: June 30

0xa08bf5…d21e

3¢−2pp$4KP→

Cluster 3

Grok 5 released by

1 contract$1K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Grok 5 released by...?: June 30, 2026

0x0c61ad…c50f

12¢−8pp$1KP→

Cluster 4

Meta "Mango" model released by

1 contract$1

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Meta "Mango" model released by...?: June 30

0xe2b3ac…17b4

26¢−22pp$1P→

Cluster 5

VEO 4 released by

1 contract$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

VEO 4 released by...?: June 30

0x3f426b…fa83

11¢−4pp$0P→

What moved the line

May 6June 30↓31pp51→20¢ · Polymarket
May 6June 30↑24pp15→39¢ · Polymarket
May 6June 30↓22pp48→26¢ · Polymarket
May 6May 31↓15pp23→8¢ · Polymarket
May 7June 30, 2026↓8pp18→10¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Adjacent prediction questions.

In general

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Browse all prediction questions →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.

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