Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market displays extreme yield metrics (4196% implied yield on Yes) driven by illiquidity rather than genuine mispricing, with only $36 in 24-hour volume and $1,648 open interest across a 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market displays extreme yield metrics (4196% implied yield on Yes) driven by illiquidity rather than genuine mispricing, with only $36 in 24-hour volume and $1,648 open interest across a 6¢ spread. The 28¢ price has declined 4¢ over seven days, suggesting modest bearish sentiment on Hamilton's podium prospects at Miami, though the low trading activity limits confidence in directional conviction. With 31 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this contract carries meaningful event risk and should be approached cautiously given the thin liquidity environment.
Resolution rules
If Lewis Hamilton finishes in the top 3 (podium finish) in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-HAM yes 100