What is the current probability for "Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 22 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 22333.6% and 126.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Podium Finishers. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This Miami Grand Prix podium market displays extreme mispricing with a 12¢ price implying only 12% odds for Verstappen to finish top-3, yet the Yes-side implied yield reaches an astronomical 13,611%—a massive disconnect suggesting severe undervaluation.

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11¢

Bid/Ask 7/11¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $167.67·OI $2,441.06·Closes May 17, 2026·22d remaining

KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-VER

7-day price28 snapshots · 10 regime

10¢7¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 25

Analysis

9d ago

This Miami Grand Prix podium market displays extreme mispricing with a 12¢ price implying only 12% odds for Verstappen to finish top-3, yet the Yes-side implied yield reaches an astronomical 13,611%—a massive disconnect suggesting severe undervaluation. The market shows concerning illiquidity with just $1,388 open interest and a wide 5¢ spread, while the 7-day price movement from 4¢ to 8¢ indicates recent volatility that may reflect thin order books rather than fundamental reassessment. With 31 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 3,429%, this appears to be a low-liquidity venue where the extreme yield metrics are likely artifacts of minimal trading activity rather than genuine arbitrage opportunities.

Resolution rules

If Max Verstappen finishes in the top 3 (podium finish) in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 22333.6%

IY (No) 126.5%

Adj IY 4786%

CRI 13

Overround 2.4%

LAS 0.57

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	22333.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	126.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4786%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.57	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Computed

4/26/2026, 4:52:13 AM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/26/2026, 4:53:37 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXF1RACEPODIUM-MIAGP26-VER yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →