Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 5382.9% implied yield on the No side versus 259.4% on Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion at the 88¢ price point.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 5382.9% implied yield on the No side versus 259.4% on Yes, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion at the 88¢ price point. The $100 open interest and volume indicate dangerously thin liquidity, making the 8¢ spread potentially misleading given the cliff risk index of 5—any meaningful order flow could cause sharp repricing. With 31 days to the May 17 close and only modest 1¢ price movement over the past week, this appears to be a neglected market where the high No yield may simply reflect the difficulty of finding counterparties rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If George Russell finishes in the top 5 in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXF1TOP5-MIAGP26-RUS yes 100