Minnesota wins by over 1.5 goals?

Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Minnesota wins by over 1.5 goals?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market exhibits extreme pricing dysfunction with Minnesota's win-by-over-1.5-goals contract trading at 0¢ despite a 55¢ bid-ask spread and zero liquidity (no 24h volume or open interest), suggesting the contract may be effectively dead or mispriced.

██████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
34¢
Bid/Ask 31/33¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $975.18·OI $1,598.4·Closes May 9, 2026·16d remaining
KXNHLSPREAD-26APR25DALMIN-MIN1
7-day price254 snapshots · 17 regime
32¢31¢ current
Apr 184¢Apr 23

Analysis

4d ago

This market exhibits extreme pricing dysfunction with Minnesota's win-by-over-1.5-goals contract trading at 0¢ despite a 55¢ bid-ask spread and zero liquidity (no 24h volume or open interest), suggesting the contract may be effectively dead or mispriced. The astronomical 34,047% implied yield on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the near-zero price rather than a genuine opportunity, while the 2,163% realized volatility and high cliff risk (19) indicate severe market instability. With the underlying game originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 but the market not closing until May 9, 2026, there's potential confusion about whether this contract is even still active or if the game has already been played.

Resolution rules

If Minnesota wins by over 1.5 goals in the Dallas at Minnesota professional hockey game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5049.8%
IY (No) 1019.3%
Adj IY 2281%
CRI 2
Overround -0.1%
LAS 0.10
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)5049.8%
IY (No)1019.3%
Adj IY2281%
CRI2
Overround-0.1%
LAS0.10

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/23/2026, 7:26:55 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/23/2026, 7:23:12 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXNHLSPREAD-26APR25DALMIN-MIN1 yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions