SimpleFunctions

Belinda Robertson to win New Mexico Governor Republican Primary

Belinda Robertson is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 10 inside New Mexico Governor Republican Primary Winner.

Price history

0¢ current

50¢
0¢25¢50¢
Apr 28, 2026May 7, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New Mexico, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New Mexico Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Mexico Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Outcome

Belinda Robertson

Rank

#4 of 10

Leader

Greg Hull 81¢

Range

0¢-81¢

Family volume

$862K

Identifier

0xf96a84e1...fe61

May 24, 2026, 6:58 AM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

0¢
Bid/ask midpoint
May 24, 2026, 6:58 AM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$10

Family rank

#4 of 10

10 outcomes · New Mexico Governor Republican Primary Winner

Closes

Jun 2, 2026

Family volume

$862K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 0¢

Polymarket
0¢ spread
BidSize
0¢20K
AskSize
0¢71
0¢2.6K
2¢30
2¢80
3¢30
100¢200
100¢110
100¢55

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New Mexico, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New Mexico Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Mexico Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 2, 2026

Identifier

0xf96a84e1…fe61

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Conceptmethodology

Reflexivity Loops in Election Markets: When Price → Consensus → Price

Election prediction markets have a feedback loop where price becomes news becomes price. How the loop works, the 2024 case study, and how to size trades against it.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Your First Prediction Market Trade: End-to-End CLI Walkthrough

Step-by-step CLI tutorial for your first prediction market trade. Install, scan, create a thesis, find edges, check liquidity, place an order, and monitor — all from the command line.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.