Te Pāti Māori · New Zealand Election: 2nd Place
Te Pāti Māori is priced at 14¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 27¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 6 inside New Zealand Election: 2nd Place.
Price history
14¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Outcome
Te Pāti Māori
Rank
#6 of 6
Leader
Labour Party 41¢
Range
14¢-41¢
Family volume
$424
Identifier
0x8936b774...a911
May 28, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
27¢
24h volume
$20
Family rank
#6 of 6
6 outcomes · New Zealand Election: 2nd Place
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Family volume
$424
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Identifier
0x8936b774…a911
Event family
New Zealand Election: 2nd Place.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$424
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Labour Party 41¢
Current share
13%
Labour Party
polymarket · 0xe9cb48f6706fdb574c943787f38d7ae2dd93a5eddea40e0a78036c624f2ce483
New Zealand First Party
polymarket · 0x12781ea8e77487ed32ed6cef5026d5199b5618d1c58220e98af81eee539797a4
National Party
polymarket · 0x5fe6c169639d7a315e58c7aea2a1b7ba7720aaa86c07292090ce97b70c83bea7
Green Party
polymarket · 0xc62accd00f42ef9854bb604b1754a485f74f70404b7a1b4c2aeca6383efd5eb2
ACT New Zealand
polymarket · 0xf1dc41f7035faef137a4e82ca99a059f8055328c1e4169d98616ac0d173c1369
Te Pāti Māori
polymarket · 0x8936b7748124d3d7fdf291ffde0558dffff1725ca5306416462e277624e5a911
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.