SimpleFunctions

Rasmus Dahlin to win NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy

Rasmus Dahlin is priced at 1¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner.

Open on PolymarketView JSONEnter terminal

Price history

1¢ current

−2¢
0¢25¢50¢
May 13, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy for the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

Rasmus Dahlin

Rank

#8 of 16

Leader

Mitch Marner 36¢

Range

0¢-36¢

Family volume

$6K

Identifier

0x7c26e597...d652

May 26, 2026, 11:50 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

1¢
Bid/ask midpoint
May 26, 2026, 11:50 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

0¢

Ask

1¢

Spread

1¢

24h volume

$95

Family rank

#8 of 16

16 outcomes · NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Family volume

$6K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 1¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
0¢306
AskSize
74¢10
74¢30
74¢100
75¢121
75¢7
75¢16
76¢37
100¢100

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy for the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jul 1, 2026

Identifier

0x7c26e597…d652

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$6K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Mitch Marner 36¢

Current share

3%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Mitch Marner

polymarket · 0x95cd0ff6c13866396851dad5646867609e16c4f256a4e88744c3bb615a391f88

36¢
$138$60.8

Nick Suzuki

polymarket · 0x813432b4e0597553bf8605ead78529d830844915b42e716635704d97c9ed10a0

28¢
$123$0—

Nathan MacKinnon

polymarket · 0xf2b1e81b016a781e7569eaec51dd4fa1bbb7bc4373a8228000b4f7fcd6c1edb2

5¢
$1K$0—

Cale Makar

polymarket · 0xf0b5966b0742263ebe474b18ff63db3678a8ab393385673d5e32a6df11fa2c1c

2¢
$130$0—

David Pastrnak

polymarket · 0x73ea9b13e98c629ca02033286c90a56d2ff9a2a827555281d9ec2af74f5fd206

1¢
$375$265—

Cutter Guanthier

polymarket · 0x3d74bd729a5313c65fb8ab9c301eeccb9f5f1e5d68c482291d91cd43746fc7a8

1¢
$320$0—

Dan Vladar

polymarket · 0xffc10e65618e90a2fffe6f6d057284b71b2624f622b8ef5b4eb7d1041145d288

1¢
$110$100—

Andrei Vasilevskiy

polymarket · 0x6832d351585e56c56af5647c1777b58cb9577164b27c581be044e1ee1dde1ac8

0¢
$1K$0—

Linus Ullmark

polymarket · 0xad238b285d38687f634a092a6a584d444da5eec46b2c10ec111b4fa850685a89

0¢
$477$304—

Sidney Crosby

polymarket · 0xd19d4c07441e538145abfd1c6993cf665faad1f0d633b3ae92fc9f2e77c00d0c

0¢
$446$0—

Nikita Kucherov

polymarket · 0x1249989f517f9f932d89415c1f6c1da134d027ca0f630dce5ad64edde5607f7f

0¢
$429$216—

Quinn Hughes

polymarket · 0xd1ea1c8bec41f9adc0dcb84b4d2c76221e717e3fd886eea64e3d496ebd613ca2

0¢
$379$0—

Leon Draisaitl

polymarket · 0xc15a80fae09bff2f7f8d70ee3a41a8d152eadac1c796584adf2ba2609a85c8a1

0¢
$229$88—

Rasmus Dahlin

polymarket · 0x7c26e5977466ecf957718a00aa15fd5ae85225854604f6ce6ffa95481564d652

0¢
$205$95—

Connor McDavid

polymarket · 0x5635eac10eabfc9e9d8170595f0e40c76815db105ef105bd7b8fbd6caa40dbb7

0¢
$191$0—

Alex Tuch

polymarket · 0x111ee262502014fd10dc692b578c1fcd7b2f896d417fd8f927711b1a473ec050

0¢
$110$100—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.

Event Probability API

Read 1% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.

World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

Hedging Workflows

Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.