Nathan MacKinnon to win NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy
Nathan MacKinnon is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner.
Price history
5¢ current
−42¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy for the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Nathan MacKinnon
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Nick Suzuki 42¢
Range
0¢-42¢
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
0xf2b1e81b...edb2
May 25, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$48
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy for the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
0xf2b1e81b…edb2
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at —.
Event family
NHL: 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Nick Suzuki 42¢
Current share
27%
Nick Suzuki
polymarket · 0x813432b4e0597553bf8605ead78529d830844915b42e716635704d97c9ed10a0
Sebastian Aho
polymarket · 0xce35cd2c9aae9bfa1f950f966a151734ac283926e1a9d287e30009520e9d23ae
Mitch Marner
polymarket · 0x95cd0ff6c13866396851dad5646867609e16c4f256a4e88744c3bb615a391f88
Nathan MacKinnon
polymarket · 0xf2b1e81b016a781e7569eaec51dd4fa1bbb7bc4373a8228000b4f7fcd6c1edb2
Cole Caufield
polymarket · 0x10b3fcc3b19e955143c198b94fa9c41e778a215b65cd33fed3927acbec16ba2a
Cale Makar
polymarket · 0xf0b5966b0742263ebe474b18ff63db3678a8ab393385673d5e32a6df11fa2c1c
Cutter Guanthier
polymarket · 0x3d74bd729a5313c65fb8ab9c301eeccb9f5f1e5d68c482291d91cd43746fc7a8
Nikita Kucherov
polymarket · 0x1249989f517f9f932d89415c1f6c1da134d027ca0f630dce5ad64edde5607f7f
Linus Ullmark
polymarket · 0xad238b285d38687f634a092a6a584d444da5eec46b2c10ec111b4fa850685a89
Leon Draisaitl
polymarket · 0xc15a80fae09bff2f7f8d70ee3a41a8d152eadac1c796584adf2ba2609a85c8a1
David Pastrnak
polymarket · 0x73ea9b13e98c629ca02033286c90a56d2ff9a2a827555281d9ec2af74f5fd206
Andrei Vasilevskiy
polymarket · 0x6832d351585e56c56af5647c1777b58cb9577164b27c581be044e1ee1dde1ac8
Sidney Crosby
polymarket · 0xd19d4c07441e538145abfd1c6993cf665faad1f0d633b3ae92fc9f2e77c00d0c
Quinn Hughes
polymarket · 0xd1ea1c8bec41f9adc0dcb84b4d2c76221e717e3fd886eea64e3d496ebd613ca2
Connor McDavid
polymarket · 0x5635eac10eabfc9e9d8170595f0e40c76815db105ef105bd7b8fbd6caa40dbb7
Rasmus Dahlin
polymarket · 0x7c26e5977466ecf957718a00aa15fd5ae85225854604f6ce6ffa95481564d652
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.