2026 for Nothing Ever Happens
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 is priced at 71¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 69¢ bid, 72¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
71¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Outcome
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$594K
Identifier
0xa090ae1a...931e
Jun 7, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
69¢
Ask
72¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$382
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$594K
Orderbook snapshot
69 / 72¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xa090ae1a…931e
Event family
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$594K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 71¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
low
Event type
unknown
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.