Nothing Ever Happens
Leader sits at 94% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Satoshi Nakamoto
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Obama
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$442
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Nothing Ever Happens
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that nothing significant will happen related to Satoshi Nakamoto in 2026. The 93% price suggests traders view major developments—such as identity revelation, asset movement, or credible emergence—as unlikely within the timeframe. The leading contract has experienced minimal recent trading volume, indicating limited liquidity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect current information. Upward pressure would require concrete evidence of Nakamoto's activity or identification; downward pressure would come from credible claims or technical developments that suggest emergence. The resolution ultimately depends on whatever verification criteria the market established at contract inception, with the year-end deadline serving as the key temporal boundary. Current pricing suggests baseline skepticism about dramatic revelations, though the thin trading volume warrants caution about relying on this price as a precise probability estimate.
- ›The Satoshi Nakamoto contract shows near-zero 24-hour trading volume, suggesting pricing may be stale or reflect limited current market consensus
- ›Bitcoin and cryptocurrency regulatory developments in 2026 could trigger increased scrutiny or disclosure pressures that might affect resolution criteria
- ›Any credible technical forensics, leaked documentation, or authenticated communication from a Satoshi-linked address would create immediate resolution uncertainty
- ›The contract's definition of 'something happening' versus 'nothing happening' determines whether asset movement, court proceedings, or mere speculation count as events
- ›Historical precedent: Satoshi Nakamoto's pseudonymity has persisted for 17+ years despite widespread speculation, establishing a baseline expectation of continued anonymity absent extraordinary circumstances
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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