45-49 · NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats
45-49 is priced at 48¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 17¢ bid, 74¢ ask, 57¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?.
Price history
48¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Outcome
45-49
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
45-49 51¢
Range
21¢-51¢
Family volume
$501
Identifier
0x1b869a78...580a
May 28, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
74¢
Spread
57¢
Reported volume
$79
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Family volume
$501
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 74¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Identifier
0x1b869a78…580a
Event family
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$501
Outcomes
7
Highest price
45-49 51¢
Current share
16%
45-49
polymarket · 0x1b869a78b245981351d45c14570412a9fbd6b4bd8d3525edf176ebec1efb580a
35-39
polymarket · 0x396e817dae3b46e07743d70805dcc6743bdc17c1dc31744d4e7f31a2c74dbb4c
40-44
polymarket · 0xfe45f48ffeff236475b44ed53ec858ab7d4ab5509485a515777c7558c4ca48b7
30-34
polymarket · 0x759a7c1ccb03d17031eb045490df2d889bbb35bf8284542eb7a731a3bcb16fa2
<30
polymarket · 0x0a150e16a89e7256ca3d0dfbfaa8ab2007a81b9068bbadef297421b23937e8bf
55+
polymarket · 0xa0082afab16eba836cacdee3084b777b10046c2bfd671f8eb5fec88d25a1958f
50-54
polymarket · 0x645bb9d5a71b31fff466a1f13156ce4dc06cd7f9b5fc8e97ce3e1c01549acb3d
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.