NZ Election
Leader sits at 50% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
National Party # of seats?: 35-39
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
48¢
Labour Party # of seats?: 45
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$35
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
162 days
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NZ Election
NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: 30-34
0x099179…7015
NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: <25
0xfad3e1…b287
NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: 40-44
0xe83b48…13a7
NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: 50+
0xd34b1a…f42b
NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: 25-29
0xbcf935…3b8d
NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: 45-49
0x9979e3…481c
NZ Election: National Party # of seats?: 35-39
0x39fdba…5861
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: Labour 10-15%
0x83822c…b3fc
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: National 5-10%
0x5ed3b8…3c1e
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: Labour 5-10%
0x55ae05…6021
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: National 0-5%
0x542f00…b36d
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: Labour 0-5%
0x3178e6…69d3
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: National 10%+
0x1217ae…9517
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?: 40-44
0xfe45f4…48b7
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?: 55+
0xa0082a…958f
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?: 30-34
0x759a7c…6fa2
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?: 50-54
0x645bb9…cb3d
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?: 35-39
0x396e81…bb4c
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?: 45-49
0x1b869a…580a
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?: <30
0x0a150e…e8bf
Analysis
This represents a market assessment that the National Party will win 35–39 seats in the upcoming New Zealand election, with a 50% implied probability for this specific outcome band. The current odds reflect uncertainty about whether National will form a majority coalition, as the runner-up outcome sits at 45%. Market pricing across related contracts suggests traders expect a close result, with material probability also assigned to National underperforming (30–34 seats at 38¢) and Labour performing better than baseline (45–49 seats at 47¢). The next scheduled election date will determine the final seat count; polling trends, campaign momentum, and coalition arithmetic leading into that vote would shift probabilities. The tight clustering of prices across multiple outcomes indicates limited consensus on the exact composition of Parliament rather than high confidence in any single scenario.
- ›National Party seat forecasting from recent public polls and their trend trajectory
- ›Labour Party performance relative to expectations, particularly in the 45–49 seat range valued at 47¢
- ›Viability and likelihood of coalition partners available to either major party to reach or exceed 61 seats for a working majority
- ›Margin of victory in party list vote share, with National 10%+ margin priced at 40¢ suggesting material downside scenarios
- ›Scheduled election date and any campaign events or economic data releases that could shift voter preference before voting occurs
What moved the line
- May 28Labour Party # of seats?: 55+↓18pp27→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Labour Party # of seats?: 50-54↑8pp28→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 26National Party # of seats?: 50+↑6pp32→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 27National Party # of seats?: 50+↓6pp38→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Labour Party # of seats?: 55+↓5pp32→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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