30-34 · NZ Election: National Party # of seats
30-34 is priced at 32¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 20¢ bid, 54¢ ask, 34¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside NZ Election: National Party # of seats?.
Price history
32¢ current
−13¢Contract brief
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Outcome
30-34
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
30-34 49¢
Range
24¢-49¢
Family volume
$215
Identifier
0x099179db...7015
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
54¢
Spread
34¢
24h volume
$10
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Family volume
$215
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 54¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Identifier
0x099179db…7015
Event family
NZ Election: National Party # of seats.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$215
Outcomes
7
Highest price
30-34 49¢
Current share
14%
30-34
polymarket · 0x099179dbedbd59e9efbbb9dbfae2b764c31ee5ba9bd7f607540faace913e7015
35-39
polymarket · 0x39fdba8215abd5461323957e73ffb0812474c1fdc1190f03d909ec48dbe05861
40-44
polymarket · 0xe83b489f8de0140a7a23f7d8583b080975dae0a396759b1e4ebaa2607d2113a7
25-29
polymarket · 0xbcf935b6fe0a5164b077f08eb826a4b3cd739b4732e9d4974b235497a3a63b8d
45-49
polymarket · 0x9979e3cb235e8842a2e4bfae00a058890dacc6b874546ea0bfcf4dbf56e1481c
<25
polymarket · 0xfad3e15edada371df355d428a32341606e076a8a16ce62bd4bd6f1af8144b287
50+
polymarket · 0xd34b1add16357904d1529b4e9dd61fd9497fbbc400066af98655ff36aeabf42b
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.