Nathan Butterfield to win OK-01 Republican Primary
Nathan Butterfield is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 12 inside OK-01 Republican Primary Winner.
Price history
0¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
Nathan Butterfield
Rank
#5 of 12
Leader
Jackson Lahmeyer 64¢
Range
0¢-64¢
Family volume
$45K
Identifier
0x07077fdb...be08
May 27, 2026, 12:39 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
0¢
Spread
0¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#5 of 12
12 outcomes · OK-01 Republican Primary Winner
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
Family volume
$45K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 0¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
Identifier
0x07077fdb…be08
Event family
OK-01 Republican Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$45K
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Jackson Lahmeyer 64¢
Current share
6%
Jackson Lahmeyer
polymarket · 0x6e47a5547e34f9dbb26ebd67ce8693787d20251c5f1f909d377564aa040cd807
Mark Tedford
polymarket · 0x9d68465261466ff75df821881efdb495983f40a02e64d6c310dc91b6c8a39597
Dan Rooney
polymarket · 0x0462cc359ceece9a5b2acf1fd9294e252daff5759b363a2c47165f1f2603569e
Kim David
polymarket · 0xfa104e31d386621e8ed97c64e2e3aaf670a6b5ae4be74e27612287f5624c8dc1
Nathan Butterfield
polymarket · 0x07077fdbb4b0c754396a0d6ccb6f2180f906a857d763c7fbb398bde782cfbe08
Todd Woods
polymarket · 0x0e32ca6ea59eaf947ff0fa2e27f9862b194ee8729a7c6f5bde3a2ce138cb1654
Nancy Dyson
polymarket · 0xace768d1e7cab0d55c828c543ac9e0590c918d832ce2d38da61c4c1d13e78bcd
Jed Cochran
polymarket · 0xf5d5ed7acbb5f1b13d9bea1ac65a398961234a4dc349c567bc6109193f5fc746
Jackson Stallings
polymarket · 0xe39340d87239eb0bc47fd45f07ea0401fd1bcbfee8e17c17d56a2da3cfb061c7
Kelly B. Walsh
polymarket · 0x371108deed4e18f7da21e035a8db567547fb8a68e2eaf234681094f0fa2fbccd
Paul Royse
polymarket · 0xa9a5846ff275f872abbed43bd159f272c8e17d03471d5626b4ddac7df0943a8e
Courtney Gill
polymarket · 0x88cd037ba523279d949d876ef19700ab77595f600e8342cb8e310ee32febb06f
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.