SimpleFunctions
PolymarketDec 31, 2026231 days left

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 13 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 24¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 22¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 3¢ spread.

Implied probability

24¢
$269K volume
$3K liquidity
100% of event volume

Event outcomes

1

Family volume

$269K

Best sibling

Ticker

0x98dbb998…481d

Market snapshot

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027 in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?. The displayed quote is 24¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $77. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 13, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC.

Outcome

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027

Family rank

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

24¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Dec 31, 2026

24h volume

$77

Family context

Standalone contract

Quote range

Family leader

Last updated

May 13, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 11m ago

Venue identifier: 0x98dbb998749ae773baf35697d695f5efdc098def32decd687b91c634d8d0481d. Family volume: $269K.

Price history

24¢ current

6¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 13, 2026May 13, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

22 / 25¢

Polymarket
3¢ spread
BidSize
22¢6
21¢78
17¢30
16¢63
15¢120
12¢267
11¢178
10¢1.0K
AskSize
25¢167
26¢39
27¢20
28¢54
29¢120
30¢20
32¢15
33¢12

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange. OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD. Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange. If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed. If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0x98dbb998…481d

SF Signal
SF Index
437.19
Regime
neutral

Event family

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$269K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027 24¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

499.7%

IY (No)

49.8%

Adj IY

437%

CRI

3

RV

957%

VR

3.95

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

499.7%
49.8%
Adj IY
437%
3
RV
957%
VR
3.95
IAR
2.9/h
LAS
0.13

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.