Will Ryan Crosswell be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Ryan Crosswell be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. The 2371% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the modest 34¢ price and $30.34 daily volume, suggesting extreme illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction about Crosswell's nomination chances.
Analysis
The 2371% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the modest 34¢ price and $30.34 daily volume, suggesting extreme illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction about Crosswell's nomination chances. With only 33 days to the May 19 primary and realized volatility at 379%, this market appears to be experiencing thin-book dynamics where small trades create outsized percentage returns; the 6¢ spread and $13.9M open interest mask the reality that actual liquidity is severely constrained. The flat 7-day price action (holding at 32¢) combined with an info arrival rate of only 1.7 events per hour suggests limited market activity and attention, making this contract risky for position-building despite the headline yield numbers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xc02f19bd849a0fe806ca944a82e67977b957beb0b818365ed8a38ffad7da25f0 yes 100