Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1620% implied yield on the Yes side against just 12.3% on the No side, yet trades at only 8¢ with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 3¢ spread, suggesting illiquidity and potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1620% implied yield on the Yes side against just 12.3% on the No side, yet trades at only 8¢ with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 3¢ spread, suggesting illiquidity and potential mispricing. The $9M open interest combined with the neutral regime and moderate cliff risk (12) indicates this is a speculative bet on Pacifica achieving an $800M+ FDV immediately post-launch—a high bar that the 8% probability reflects as unlikely. With 259 days to resolution, there's ample time for new information, though the stagnant price action suggests limited recent market conviction either direction.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Pacifica's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Pacifica (https://x.com/pacifica_fi) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x63df94f0c69c011bade5ac222d166b14cb7116c9bd0e4de9da22865751f37089 yes 100