PLQ to win Quebec General Election
PLQ is priced at 25¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 24¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside Quebec General Election Winner.
Price history
25¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Outcome
PLQ
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
PQ 62¢
Range
0¢-62¢
Family volume
$532K
Identifier
0x9b609d94...f323
May 27, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
24¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$58K
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · Quebec General Election Winner
Closes
Oct 5, 2026
Family volume
$532K
Orderbook snapshot
24 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 5, 2026
Identifier
0x9b609d94…f323
Event family
Quebec General Election Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$532K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
PQ 62¢
Current share
11%
PQ
polymarket · 0x30d4a64f70d80faee66508a797b347ef65e63913e4200bca954718fc824ea10e
PLQ
polymarket · 0x9b609d94cd0e303bf36f68a422a93f7dad9f58a2f8e4212eef51eed93480f323
CAQ
polymarket · 0xc7bc5d759ecbd05cfbf3b41ec98f1cd7ab306234bf76fd6c1768d3be1d6b9e76
PCQ
polymarket · 0xb79b3e4a9eca37f56dbd00bb495be37079050b1bea9759e0281fe8fe475dc5aa
PVQ
polymarket · 0x72a433f7e229db037d504dbbed5c93bfcaccf9c641521be7290db4b357eb3352
QS
polymarket · 0x4c7d3102ab3408414937b8ed71a34914c117650bfa484069534761babec02560
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Your First Prediction Market Trade: End-to-End CLI Walkthrough
Step-by-step CLI tutorial for your first prediction market trade. Install, scan, create a thesis, find edges, check liquidity, place an order, and monitor — all from the command line.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 25% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.