June 30 · Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by
June 30 is priced at 31¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 27¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 14¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...?.
Price history
31¢ current
−8¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
June 30
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
June 30 31¢
Range
4¢-31¢
Family volume
$471K
Identifier
0x3d529e0a...20c0
May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
27¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
14¢
24h volume
$88
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...?
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$471K
Orderbook snapshot
27 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x3d529e0a…20c0
Event family
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$471K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
June 30 31¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.