May 31 · Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by
May 31 is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...?.
Price history
4¢ current
−8¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
May 31
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
June 30 34¢
Range
4¢-34¢
Family volume
$472K
Identifier
0xac594b23...aac0
May 28, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$472K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0xac594b23…aac0
Event family
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$472K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
June 30 34¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.