Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...
Leader sits at 35% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
May 31
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
32 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Ruben Rocha will be removed from the governorship of Sinaloa by June 30, 2026. The 38% price on the June 30 contract suggests traders view an exit within the next month as plausible but not the base case. Rocha, who took office in October 2024, faces persistent security challenges in the state, including ongoing cartel violence and territorial disputes. The probability is driven primarily by two factors: the severity of violence in Sinaloa and political pressure from the Mexican federal government regarding state-level governance. Most of the trading volume concentrates on the June 30 deadline rather than the May 31 option (currently 10%), indicating traders expect resolution timelines measured in weeks rather than days. Any major escalation of violence, federal intervention, or formal removal proceedings would likely shift the probability significantly. The contract structure isolates uncertainty to a defined timeframe, allowing traders to express views on near-term political stability in the state.
- ›Trading volume favors June 30 over May 31 (9x higher volume), suggesting traders expect removal would occur mid-to-late June if at all rather than immediately
- ›Rocha assumed office in October 2024 after winning election; early removal would represent extraordinary political intervention, which markets price as unlikely though possible
- ›Sinaloa has experienced elevated cartel violence and organized crime activity; specific incidents or federal security assessments could trigger removal pressure
- ›The May 31 contract price (10¢) shows minimal conviction in imminent removal, while June 30 at 37¢ reflects meaningful but still minority probability
- ›Mexican federal government precedent and legal mechanisms for governor removal during term would determine feasibility independent of circumstances
Recently closed in election 2026
- TX-19 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- Texas Republican Senate Primary Winnerlast 96% · 1d
- Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winnerlast 67% · 1d
- TX-38 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (35% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Texas Senate Runoff Nears Certainty: Paxton Favored
Ken Paxton’s probability of winning the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff hit 100¢, up 4¢, while John Cornyn dropped to 0¢. Over 800k volume across these two markets reflects intense last‑minute hedging.
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85¢ for House, Texas Turning Purple
Democrats hold a commanding 85¢ price for House control while the Senate remains a toss-up; Texas shows surprising weakness with anti-tariff sentiment reshaping traditional Republican strongholds.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.