Voter turnout less than 47% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election
<47% is priced at 11¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 16¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 7 inside Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout.
Price history
11¢ current
−9¢Contract brief
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Outcome
<47%
Rank
#7 of 7
Leader
62%+ 44¢
Range
11¢-44¢
Family volume
$574
Identifier
0xf0c84cc3...2807
May 28, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
16¢
24h volume
$11
Family rank
#7 of 7
7 outcomes · Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
Closes
Sep 20, 2026
Family volume
$574
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Sep 20, 2026
Identifier
0xf0c84cc3…2807
Event family
Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$574
Outcomes
7
Highest price
62%+ 44¢
Current share
32%
62%+
polymarket · 0xab5578566715f72cbe05c9faec9090d59799c5493848f46fd758bb68025508b3
53-56%
polymarket · 0x3649766b9526d335382f7c5e5797f7d78a2a552d81193461ffc3f90c22fb6022
50-53%
polymarket · 0x050977f7e1e23e6540bc94a9f5b6f0d36f75885a56438b272e7752bc325a4ad7
56-59%
polymarket · 0x9099b8c5a81f4574f287d353d2b3643c390e7621a76b44b5f2cde5b083d0968b
59-62%
polymarket · 0xc3a509ea6910a7419d0a12cc2edb3cfb24a4fe3e28fc42ae7e0361ec81742ae1
47-50%
polymarket · 0xd3da1952f231ce2fc1bff1a49113569c8b4faccde7dd98847b5169d082e660ae
<47%
polymarket · 0xf0c84cc3ca6b2e2b593aa228f12f68f7d953310b46bae7687244dda95f512807
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.