Russia Parliamentary Election
Leader sits at 43% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Turnout: 62%+
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Turnout: 53-56%
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 20, 2026
114 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: <47%
0xf0c84c…2807
Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 47-50%
0xd3da19…60ae
Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 59-62%
0xc3a509…2ae1
Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 62%+
0xab5578…08b3
Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 56-59%
0x9099b8…968b
Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 53-56%
0x364976…6022
Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout: 50-53%
0x050977…4ad7
What moved the line
- May 24Turnout: 47-50%↓8pp21→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Turnout: <47%↓7pp19→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Turnout: 56-59%↑5pp25→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 28Turnout: 62%+↑5pp39→44¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Turnout: 47-50%↓4pp25→21¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winnerlast 67% · 1d
- TX-38 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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