SBF released from custody in 2026
SBF released from custody in 2026 is priced at 9¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
9¢ current
−41¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
SBF released from custody in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$358K
Identifier
0x5f18a239...f85e
May 23, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$358K
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x5f18a239…f85e
Event family
SBF released from custody in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$358K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
SBF released from custody in 2026 9¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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