Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
This contract is priced at 27¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 26¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
8
Family volume
$1.9M
Best sibling
2.5T-3.0T 13¢
Ticker
0x15fa6bf8…e3c1
Price history
27¢ current
+4¢Orderbook snapshot
26 / 27¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
—
Identifier
0x15fa6bf8…e3c1
Event family
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$1.9M
Outcomes
8
Highest price
1.5T-2.0T 30¢
Current share
4%
2.0T-2.5T
polymarket · 0x15fa6bf8e2106d0d39e2fb2dcf7239eb31036a672280838f8d02bc4e0286e3c1
2.5T-3.0T
polymarket · 0xe51f231db21003948460569107975a20ed138b642b2952c4f0798da8c64d8591
3.0T-3.5T
polymarket · 0x0fbeade92bd77dc81450460c1f04177cff657b7ddba7448eb6e87ae9a2d6325a
No IPO before 2028
polymarket · 0xb571a7ed22becbb402e94785f1c8c3f9687e549c42286f01ab30536722d0c584
<1.0T
polymarket · 0x8e4a810cd4169d2ab31e05ad183b383169e9ec8919a62c07ff2e843dd919a8ae
1.5T-2.0T
polymarket · 0x235693693a07f40782ff4a91d992a98a627d77a4cde305af3dd675eb982ec283
3.5T+
polymarket · 0xa4ddb063d69b1909799d196274b26405601dee7b4e099eb83bec9c24b925eae5
1.0T-1.5T
polymarket · 0x586555817c3d83541254d75bbf52089c209d836d395e604a52bee72518f0e898
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
New Market Price Formation: The First 24 Hours of a Listed Contract
When a binary contract first lists, the price moves through four phases: maker seeding, discovery flow, tentative consensus, stable pricing. Trading rules and the maker opportunity in phases 1 and 2.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions vs Oddpool vs Raw Kalshi API — Which Prediction Market Tool Should You Use?
Compare SimpleFunctions, Oddpool, and raw Kalshi/Polymarket APIs for prediction market trading. Honest breakdown of features, pricing, and when to use each tool.
How Bitcoin & Ethereum Crypto 2026 Price Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Leg of the Cycle
Deep-dive for crypto investors and traders into Bitcoin and Ethereum 2026 price prediction markets. Learn how BTC/ETH halving base rates, ETF flows, DeFi/L2 growth, and global regulation shape market-implied odds for 2026 price targets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 27% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.