SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap: 2.0T-2.5T
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
27%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$25
1 contracts
Top contract
27¢
$25 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap: 2.0T-2.5T
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap: 2.0T-2.5T
0x15fa6b…e3c1
Analysis
This probability represents a 27% chance that SpaceX's initial public offering would close with a valuation between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion. The current assessment reflects uncertainty about both the timing and valuation of a potential IPO. The related contracts suggest markets expect SpaceX valued above $1.2 trillion (91% probability) but below $2.2 trillion (43% probability), indicating the $2.0-2.5T range sits toward the higher end of realistic outcomes. Key drivers include SpaceX's revenue growth trajectory, profitability milestones, and Starlink's commercialization progress, which would support a higher valuation. Conversely, regulatory hurdles, competition in launch services, or macroeconomic conditions could compress valuations downward. The primary uncertainty remains whether and when Elon Musk chooses to pursue an IPO, as no official timeline has been announced.
- ›SpaceX's annual revenue and path to profitability relative to comparable public aerospace/defense companies' trading multiples
- ›Starlink subscriber growth rates and unit economics compared to satellite internet competitors
- ›Regulatory approval status and timeline for Starlink's spectrum licenses and international expansion
- ›Elon Musk's stated intentions regarding IPO timing and any disclosed discussions with underwriters or the SEC
- ›Aggregate market capitalization of comparable space/defense companies and current multiples assigned to high-growth, capital-intensive aerospace firms
What moved the line
- Apr 282.0T-2.5T↑4pp28→32¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 292.0T-2.5T↓3pp32→29¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 302.0T-2.5T↓3pp29→26¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (27% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.