Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?
This contract is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
8
Family volume
$3.2M
Best sibling
1T+ 92¢
Ticker
0x2a7eaf49…0dd5
Price history
0¢ current
−50¢Orderbook snapshot
0 / 0¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
0x2a7eaf49…0dd5
Event family
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes).
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$3.2M
Outcomes
8
Highest price
1T+ 92¢
Current share
9%
700B–800B
polymarket · 0x2a7eaf49150dd8eb4ac5901eebb9fdce52a84093e3c7336213c4c8aaa1e70dd5
1T+
polymarket · 0xdafaa73301e394d19a14c3f1b220d3e27eee7cc042fe4e694c102ba9292ec49e
No IPO before 2028
polymarket · 0xa53fdef6047fbcdd3bf305ad19851a3bcf28eda72bdd31039f45cb8fa379f747
800B–900B
polymarket · 0x82776e1d30f29cec9b99f63f4d821527bbfc028af995381cff815074a10ff167
900B–1T
polymarket · 0x36f44c4409cd8e1e3aab863f9692bac2d78073b33b3b10cb10a2685ba1ad94b4
<500B
polymarket · 0xc7af6cffebfc1c0d3b19d66a2495a19a12b41a63af98e40d70f2bc710c7f1561
500B–600B
polymarket · 0x61ab8a9019da7012cacf68afadd484ca68bcecde8f53f5426fbf4c174e2de623
600B–700B
polymarket · 0x41ac836a825fc356c6003e736e25015c07871c04f8fbdb9a57f635acab77c1c8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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