July 31 · Starmer out by
July 31 is priced at 28¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 27¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Starmer out by...?.
Price history
28¢ current
−22¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Outcome
July 31
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
December 31 71¢
Range
1¢-71¢
Family volume
$9.6M
Identifier
0x0efcc493...cca8
May 28, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
27¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · Starmer out by...?
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$9.6M
Orderbook snapshot
27 / 30¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
0x0efcc493…cca8
Event family
Starmer out by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9.6M
Outcomes
5
Highest price
December 31 71¢
Current share
0%
December 31
polymarket · 0x2bde6486e7067f48ee21344d8b5c1af458732536eb4d080932c88c3a7c2d2126
July 31
polymarket · 0x0efcc493f7e7578cd5808b29e08c2535dee61c2a1fe841696e76e7892b29cca8
June 30
polymarket · 0xbee2cd40473495f713c69b9dfbce9fc2837fa4011568222c83c83bb773e35053
June 15
polymarket · 0x3f75f0ebdcde8371e64cb1462ad7e893aff45003415986d02c29d823132aebd9
May 31
polymarket · 0xe0b6f4d40f33f456caba50434db5ea8c5ca93e84eb912054a80ca0c58ad70dd7
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.