Starmer out by...
Leader sits at 67% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
June 30
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$42K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Starmer out by
Analysis
This contract assigns a 67% probability that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will leave office by December 31, 2026. The high probability reflects near-term political risks including potential health crises, internal Labour Party instability, or sudden electoral pressures that could force an early departure. The baseline expectation is that Starmer serves most of his current term, but the 2026 date window captures meaningful uncertainty around mid-term viability. Key drivers include polling trends showing Labour's position relative to the Conservative opposition, internal party cohesion following recent elections, and major fiscal or policy decisions that could trigger confidence votes. The most immediate catalyst would be any sudden announcement of resignation, serious illness, or significant erosion in parliamentary support over the coming months.
- ›Current polling averages and Labour's standing relative to the Conservative Party as of May 2026
- ›Starmer's health status and any publicly disclosed medical events
- ›Labour's internal party stability, including any backbench rebellions or cabinet resignations
- ›Occurrences of no-confidence votes or formal challenges to his leadership within the party or Parliament
- ›Major fiscal announcements or policy reversals that could trigger sudden political shifts
What moved the line
- Apr 29May 15↓12pp21→9¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 15↑5pp16→21¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27June 30↓5pp45→40¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29June 30↑4pp39→43¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27December 31↓3pp71→68¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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