SimpleFunctions

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30 is priced at 39¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 37¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

39¢ current

22¢
25¢50¢75¢
May 8, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tamas Sulyok ceases to be the President of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and June 30 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sulyok's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tamas Sulyok and the Hungarian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$251K

Identifier

0x2af78d63...12a7

May 27, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 13m ago

Implied probability

39¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 13m ago

Bid

37¢

Ask

38¢

Spread

24h volume

$20K

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$251K

Orderbook snapshot

37 / 38¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
37¢50
36¢158
35¢328
34¢1.3K
33¢1.1K
32¢200
31¢50
30¢664
AskSize
38¢535
39¢1.3K
40¢572
41¢127
42¢97
43¢120
44¢1.0K
45¢1.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tamas Sulyok ceases to be the President of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and June 30 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sulyok's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Tamas Sulyok and the Hungarian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x2af78d63…12a7

SF Signal
SF Index
1724.81
Regime
neutral

Event family

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$251K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30 38¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1771.4%

IY (No)

665.4%

Adj IY

1725%

CRI

2

RV

430%

VR

1.12

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1771.4%
665.4%
Adj IY
1725%
2
RV
430%
VR
1.12
IAR
0.7/h
LAS
0.03

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Conceptmethodology

Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes

When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Technicalrisk

Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks: Liquidity, Spread, and When to Enter

How to read prediction market orderbooks on Kalshi. Covers bid-ask spread analysis, liquidity scoring, executable edge calculation, and when thin markets are opportunities vs traps.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.