Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
34%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
33 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
0x2af78d…12a7
Analysis
This prediction reflects a 73% probability that Tamas Sulyok will no longer serve as President of Hungary by June 30, 2026. Sulyok became president in March 2022 as a politically independent figure, but Hungarian presidential politics remains tied to broader power dynamics with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government. The high probability likely reflects either reported health concerns, political tension, or recent developments suggesting early departure. Key uncertainties include whether Sulyok's stated intent to serve remains firm, whether parliament might initiate removal proceedings, or whether resignation might occur due to personal circumstances. The timeframe allows roughly seven weeks for events to unfold. Market participants appear to weight the possibility of presidential succession substantially, though Hungary's constitutional framework limits the presidency to largely ceremonial duties, making removal less straightforward than in systems with executive power.
- ›Sulyok's current health status and any recent public statements regarding his fitness to continue in office
- ›Parliamentary composition and whether any coalition has sufficient votes to initiate impeachment or removal procedures under Hungarian law
- ›Timeline for Hungary's next scheduled elections or government transitions that could trigger leadership changes
- ›Any formal statements from Sulyok's office or the government regarding his continued tenure through June 2026
- ›Volume and movement of trading activity on the contract, indicating whether new information has recently shifted market expectations
What moved the line
- May 26Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?↓10pp49→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?↓4pp51→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 20Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?↑3pp48→51¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
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This page aggregates 1 contract (34% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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