December 31 · Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by
December 31 is priced at 37¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 30¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?.
Price history
37¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
December 31
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
December 31 37¢
Range
6¢-37¢
Family volume
$382K
Identifier
0x85647246...7c10
May 28, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
30¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$950
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$382K
Orderbook snapshot
30 / 35¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x85647246…7c10
Event family
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$382K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
December 31 37¢
Current share
2%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.