John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%
Cornyn 3–6% is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 8 inside Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory.
Price history
1¢ current
−16¢Contract brief
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Outcome
Cornyn 3–6%
Rank
#6 of 8
Leader
Paxton 9%+ 83¢
Range
0¢-83¢
Family volume
$106K
Identifier
0xe342cc46...0544
May 25, 2026, 1:13 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$573
Family rank
#6 of 8
8 outcomes · Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
Closes
May 25, 2026
Family volume
$106K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 25, 2026
Identifier
0xe342cc46…0544
Event family
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$106K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Paxton 9%+ 83¢
Current share
8%
Paxton 9%+
polymarket · 0xfce5fb1312e1383038cbe594477429d920d6dfe4d1885da678ca511ed81ea6f1
Cornyn <3%
polymarket · 0xfbe28d2997101a180d742259c92db1ca447a9b6ae498c46b44ff96c9894feadf
Paxton 6–9%
polymarket · 0xf7cabaf4d6c529cc8ff3c947d432d69b558f165158df772e6eb317bb1ea32be9
Paxton 3–6%
polymarket · 0x94bbf835c1b7fabb7ddd41e53e3c194cb1f34387946f979c6295717a2d722b2c
Paxton <3%
polymarket · 0x7539e672729f47054481fbcc411cca685311f8664f86e78d189638e2ca2c76bb
Cornyn 3–6%
polymarket · 0xe342cc4640b98c07e65a76d7083376a8ca975b205f37d262efe6218fb6130544
Cornyn 9%+
polymarket · 0x780eda657742337ca48284a55e7f2103d35484f16e05c49271cf1ed4e8cac89c
Cornyn 6–9%
polymarket · 0x186beb7deef540aa0e08f48c298580e85732a4ff1e86883252183bfd793da273
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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