Will the match end in a draw?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the match end in a draw?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market displays extreme distress signals with a 33,401% implied yield on the Yes side and zero 24-hour volume despite $137.87k open interest, suggesting the 8¢ price is likely stale or illiquid.
Analysis
This market displays extreme distress signals with a 33,401% implied yield on the Yes side and zero 24-hour volume despite $137.87k open interest, suggesting the 8¢ price is likely stale or illiquid. The 9¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and with only 13 days until expiry and the underlying game scheduled for April 25, 2026, there's significant cliff risk (index of 12) if the match gets postponed or canceled. The massive yield asymmetry and lack of recent trading activity indicate this contract may be mispriced or abandoned by traders.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6b6f423d824cada6958b837619f5322c30521203188e8df4d6b8657af591a483 yes 100